Forecasting emergency unplanned care
A collaboration to produce statistical models that can be routinely used by appropriate health/local authority/other analytics teams to produce daily forecasts up to 6 months in advance with the pertinent associated uncertainties and variations in Urgent and Emergency Care.
This project will facilitate planning and management in hospitals, walk-in centres, and GP practices. As more health, local authority and other relevant data becomes available the models will be enhanced to track ‘at-risk’ cohorts coming through unplanned care. For this initial project, the focus will be on the frail elderly with an emphasis on dementia, and on alcohol-related attendances.